Hints of Peace in War-Torn Sudan - Stratfor Global Intelligence update, June 30
"a truce appears to be breaking out in Sudan"
Summary
After 17 years of civil war, there are sudden hints of peace in Sudan. The government of President Omar Bashir and one of the chief rebel groups, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) may have worked out a tacit deal to lay aside hostilities. The government has been strangely mute as the rebels take advantage of the renewed flow of international aid, and the battlefield has been comparatively quiet. If not the beginning of a formal peace, a truce appears to be breaking out in Sudan.
Analysis
On June 28, OXFAM, an international relief organization, confirmed that it would resume operations in rebel-held areas of southern Sudan. In early March, several aid agencies, including OXFAM, had suspended operations after refusing to sign an agreement giving the rebels control and oversight over all relief operations. Only the United Nations and some private agencies continued to supply food.
Now, several more agencies have conceded to the rebel demands and will sign the agreement; international relief agencies are effectively acting as if the rebels are the legal local government. Aside from the symbolism, the flow of aid will practically benefit the rebels; they will oversee it and charge organizations a fee for operating in the south. On the face of the matter, these developments would seem to fuel the war.
As a result, it seems odd that President Omar Bashir has chosen to remain silent about the rebels’ new policy. Bashir’s silence, however, may be in line with the government’s newly conciliatory policy towards the rebels. On the battlefield, fighting continues but neither side is now attacking the revenues of the enemy; the government is letting aid resume, and the rebels in the south have only staged two attacks on a major oil pipeline since March 1999.
The southern-based rebel group, the SPLA/M, insisted on controlling aid agencies in order to gain some oversight over their efforts and the flow of aid. Approximately 30 non-governmental organizations have been providing relief in the south. By essentially acting as a local government, the rebels will gain strength. First, the rebels charge a fee for operating in their area. Second, they get to use the NGO's transport and equipment, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
In fact, the SPLA/M has already created a quasi-governmental body to work with the relief agencies, the Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Association (SRRA). Working in tandem with relief agencies will bolster the rebels’ support among the local populace.
The new legal distinction is important. The rebels have always used stolen relief aid to feed soldiers and fuel the war.
At this juncture in the war, the government finds itself in a position of relative weakness. In addition to the SPLA/M in the south, government troops are fighting the Umma party in the north and several minor insurgent groups. In Khartoum, the president himself is facing a continuing, if albeit minor, challenge from his former mentor and advisor, Hassan Turabi.
The fundamentalist Islamic leader recently formed his own political party after being dismissed from the leadership of Bashir’s ruling National Congress Party. Although Bashir has managed to effectively undercut Turabi’s power base, the Islamic leader continues to challenge his former protégé. In a country where more than 70 percent of Sudan’s 34 million population adhere to Islam, Turabi continues to be a political force.
The government is also worried about protecting its most important industry: oil. A 930-mile pipeline, inaugurated in May 1999 carries oil from Sudan’s southern oil fields to the Red Sea Port Sudan. While the government’s military provides security for the pumping stations and the pipeline, the pipeline remains a vulnerable target.
The continued development of the country’s oil industry relies, at least in part, upon the rebels’ cooperation. Facing a history of conflict and animosity, the president may well see the benefits of cutting deals instead of trying to fight.
stratfor.com |
