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Technology Stocks : CPSX-CERAMICS PROCESS SYSTEMS

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To: Mahatmabenfoo who wrote (152)	6/30/2000 9:00:04 AM
From: GARY P GROBBEL	of 181

charles...no problem, no harm, no foul. and i agree some of the new economy stocks are doing well...as are some of the semi and telecomm stocks, esp optics related companies. but overall stocks got hammered, including the micros...esp the micros. vol for shares traded on the otc bb was 24 billion shares in both february and march and dropped to 4 billion for april. altho i only recognize cpsx and semx out of the ones you list the micros as a whole got hit more percentage wise because that was where the most air was, along with the dot coms. invariably in a correction the micros are the first stocks tossed out and they are the last ones to recover. micros require a higher degree of investor confidence as opposed to the mid or large caps so we are usually bringing up the rear when stocks reflate. if one wishes to look for a culprit in addition to the fed (the fed's bias on tightening + environment created by series of rate increases since last summer was not in and of itself a trigger but rather were crucial and heavily weighted elements in the mix at the time) there were a couple other events that took place right before and right on the day the decline began. if i recall correctly the week prior my heroine abbey joseph cohen reduced her exposure to technology stocks by 5%. and i think the slope got a great deal steeper the day the justice dept announced the decision on msft. i also think there was a concerted effort to 'reflate' old economy stocks at the expense (to some degree) of the 'new' economy stocks to placate old line clients that were sick and tired of zero or worse returns. as their wails became more and more belligerent we saw the concept floated out from the street that the 'old' economy stocks would actually be significant beneficiaries of the new IT economy for assorted and various reasons. unfortunately the timing for this balloon was coincidental w/abbey, msft etc... in any event valuations were wayyyyy out of whack in some cases and dollars were being thrown at dubious ventures...and that is what the fed is targeting. i think at most we get 1/4 point in august but probably not...more important the bias will go back to neutral at the august meeting to get the fed out of the election. then we can start all over again<GG>.

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