Dear Thread,
I harbor no ill feelings towards MSFT. I think that their current P/E is quite attractive. My problem is that I cannot see any internet software product in their pipeline.
1. AOL beat them in the ISP market and still continues to domninate. No numbers are needed to come to this conclusion.
2. ORCL beat them in the B2B market with ERP, CRM, APP Server, Database etc. No number are neede to come to this conclusion.
3. SUNW beat them in the server market for the internet for large ISP, ASP and Telecom markets. This could be debated with numbers but it is not worth the time.
4. YHOO, EBAY, AMZN, Travelocity beat them in the B2C market. I do not think this subject need much debate.
5. MSFT kicks but in the PC market with a approximatley 90% market share. No disputing this fact.
6. MSFT has made so many enemies, excluding their developer community of about 4 million, that it might be difficult for them to arrange strategic internet relationships. To date, most of their alliances have not produced anything worthwhile.
7. PALM is kicking but in the internet appliance space. Good stable OS. MSFT has product but they are a non-factor.
8. MSFT WebTV is a bust. I do not know why because they were first to market. I like the product but the AOL brand name coming out this summer will provide still competition.
9. Lastly, I am looking for incremental growth. If MSFT takes the 90% of the people that use their software on the PC and convert them to an internet product line; where does the growth come from. It seems to me that they are trading dollars. IMO, I doubt they will garner a 90%+ market share for internet computing. I may be wrong but am looking for some argument to set me straight.
As I said before, I was a MSFT shareholder in the past. I currently invested in AAPL for the internet consumer space. ORCL for the B2B space. I am looking for good reasons to invest in MSFT because I am here to make money and could care less about a holy war.
The only reason, and I repeat only reason I am still looking at MSFT is their 20+ billion in cash. If used correctly they might be able to compete in the internet space. I need guidance with actual leading internet products, that are actually in the market, to place a bet on them again.
Thanks, Bob.
P.S: I do not think I am stupid. On several investements over the past two years I realized 20X-30X returns using LEAPS as my investment vehicle. If this is stupid, I would like to be the most stupid person on earth. |
