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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.06-2.9%Dec 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (1271)6/30/2000 1:53:21 PM
From: NeuroInvestment  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
Rick had mentioned to me about Peter's kind comments, which were much appreciated. I actually had tried two days ago to post a comment on the MLNM speculation, but it appears to have been digested by some SI poltergeist. Just to add what is essentially agreement with PS and MZ about attractive matchups (a topic I usually avoid because the CNS realities are so bizarre at times--CeNeS buying CNSI, the MRK/SIBIA deal):

NRGN has chemistry, but much of its portfolio is already betrothed to PFE. Unclear if complement or CRF would be enough to interest MLNM. IPIC is barely a neuro company anymore--they have pagoclone but that is already partnered with WLA, and they never pretended to be research oriented. SNAP needs a buyout more than anyone, but to the degree to which their partners have voted with their feet, their serotonin, alpha-adrenergic, and galanin targets are not that compelling.

NeuroSearch has what I think is the second best portfolio in the sector, and good chemistry capabilities--but they would be a logistical challenge and expensive.Neurocrine has the best pipeline, would be very attractive, and expensive. GLFD and GLIA together have enough of a pipeline to be attractive. CEPH would offer Provigil revenues, but the pipeline is thin.

Thus I would list NBIX, GLFD, and NeuroSearch as the three most synergistically appealing candidates. I am not suggesting that this is probable, and indeed I
would guess that nothing this logical is going to occur. But any of these matchups with MLNM would create a very impressive company (not that MLNM isnt already impressive).

Hopefully this post will stick to the system.

Harry Tracy (NeuroInvestment)(www.neuroinvestment.com)
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