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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.550

-0.9%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: q_long who wrote (5966)	6/30/2000 3:58:41 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (1) of 34857

Cereal box statistics and timelines from this WSJ.com article: Ericsson Holds Lead In Wireless Race But Nokia, Nortel Gaining ragingbull.com Current GPRS scorecard: (as of 6/29/2000) ERICSSON - 44 GPRS contracts; 24% of Europe GPRS contracts NOKIA - 40 GPRS contracts; 36% of Europe GPRS contracts NORTEL - 20 GPRS contracts MOTOROLA - 7 GPRS contracts (16 more under testing) LUCENT - handful ALCATEL - handful SIEMENS - handful Notes: Number of GSM carriers worldwide - 373 carriers Ericsson estimates 2/3 will switch to GPRS this year. With close to 150 contracts already awarded, that leaves about 100 more contracts potentially up for grabs this year, if Ericsson is correct. Estimated cost of GPRS upgrade - $70m (typical) to $150m (Germany). 249 contracts x $70m - $17.5b; 373 contracts x $70m = $26.1b. 1999 Infrastructure business was about $49b. On the network side, GPRS represents the first move from circuit-switched to packet-data. Current WCDMA scorecard: (as of 6/29/2000) ERICSSON - 6 WCDMA contracts including Vodaphone, DoCoMo, BT NOKIA - 4 WCDMA contracts including DoCoMo NORTEL - 1 (DoCoMo) MOTOROLA - ? LUCENT - 1 (DocoMo) ALCATEL - ? SIEMENS - ? Notes: Nortel expects 60 WCDMA contracts to be issued and spread out over multiple vendors between now and the second quarter of 2001. Estimated cost of WCDMA upgrade - E1.0 (typical) to E4.0 billion Euros (Germany). Separately, analysts are estimating that $150 to $300 billion will be spent on 2.5G and 3G infrastructure during the first 5 years of this decade.

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