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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: shamsaee who wrote (27148)	7/1/2000 10:10:29 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) of 54805

The rest of this post was written yesterday specifically in response to 100's comments about Q's value chain. You won't be surprised to learn that I wasn't able to post it. It still fits with the ongoing discussion. I am very frazeled with this WCDMA thing. Why is everbody wanting an inferior, not ready, more expensive,most likely to be delayed by legal battles system over 1x/HDR. I don't pretend to understand it and it is very confusing. There's always the possibility that the Korean situation is another form of posturing with the hopes of improving negotiating leverage with Qualcomm. Because Korea has and continues to have such a large impact on CDMA growth, the Korean carriers probably feel they need Qualcomm less than Qualcomm needs them. I suspect that we will continue to see a lot of waffling until the urgency of being a competitive data carrier becomes a higher priority than posturing. Until then, all we can do is continue watching the strength of the various links in the value chain and the adoption of the product. People will need to be very patient with their investments in wireless companies right now. There's a lot of bad news hitting the press and the market tends to take a very short-term view of anything good or bad. For the most part, the wireless stocks are not going to do well in this bad-press environment. If Nokia begins having some fundamental problems many think will occur, their bellweather stock will not do well and the other wireless stocks will underperform in sympathy. This is why I like a reasonably diversified portfolio. At one time Qualcomm was by far my largest holding. As a result of its self-adjustment, it is now my #2 holding and less than half of my #1 holding. And my #3 and #4 holdings are not all that far behind Qualcomm that either or both of them couldn't pass it. That scenario is fine with me. While one stock is underperforming the market big-time I've got others that are overperforming it big-time. Hot dogs and hamburgers will be burned on the grill this weekend that is exactly half-way through the year. If you have any stocks that are profitable year-to-date, they're outperforming both the Naz and the S&P 500. Every year won't be like last year. --Mike Buckley

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