CDMA in China
peopledaily.com.cn
While Synder and CNBC were drowning themselves on misinformation, China's position on CDMA is well publicized. About a month ago, I think it was MightlyLaker who posted a few Chinese language articles. The above link provides extremely up to date opinions from China sources. If all the reporters and analysts ever bother finding a translator, they would not have to embarrass themselves with all the erroneous guess work.
A few miscellaneous points that I feel is of relevance:
1) In spite of tremendous effort and investment, Chinese domestic companies only managed to capture about 2.5% of the China GSM market as of year end 1999, with the big 3 (Nokia, MOT and Ericy) dominating the market.
2) China blames late to market as the primary reason, claiming that their products, service, quality etc is now equal to that of the big three. This I have no way to verify.
3) Apparently when China introduced domestically produced GSM handsets, the big 3 started a price war which effectively took away the only advantage China GSM handsets had.
4) CDMA has a negligible presence right now but unlike popular reports, China is paying full attention to CDMA as the technology of the future.
5) TD-SCDMA is a matter of national pride. It is impossible to determine whether it is real, FUD or just negotiation ploy.
(The 4th article from the above link is authored by the CDMA manager of one of the 8 recent licensees, and therefore naturally biased toward launching CDMA now. The following are excerpts from that article. Though not exact translation, I have not added any my opinions here.)
1) Regarding 2G, even though GSM was first to market, it is apparent now that CDMA is superior. (stating the reasons that we all already know)
2) IS95 A/B to cdma2000 1x and 3x migration path benefits.
3) Results of Great Wall's CDMA service in the four cities, Beijing, Xian, Shanghai and Ghangzhou, clearly demonstrated CDMA's superiority.
4) China's involvement in CDMA had been quite early. Now they have 8 QC licensees working on base stations and handsets. During the May 2000 Tech Exh in Beijing and the June Telecom Exh in Shanghai, the author's company has already exhibited CDMA products, as well as capability for 1x.
5) One of the issues relating to CDMA is that it will benefit the US company Qualcomm, not only via royalties but also chipsets for handsets and base stations. However, this is not only a problem we cannot avoid but should not avoid, just like how Intel would benefit from the development of computers. If we do not develop CDMA, then we still need to keep up with other forms of wireless technology such as GSM. GSM also benefits foreign supplier and may be many times more.
6) Now that QC is out of the handset business, our relationship with QC has become one of cooperation vs competition. Unlike GSM, CDMA would provide a superior business foundation for long term benefits.
7) Early this year, ChinaUnicom signed contract with QC, creating the opportunity for Chinese manufacturer to control 2G and should logically lead to control of 3G. This type of control is not only over technology but future market share.
8) (the article went on to discuss benefit of 3G and 1X that we already knew).
My conclusions:
1) Freeze CDMA in China so domestic suppliers can catch up, reducing first to market advantage.
2) While CHU is delaying the launch of CDMA, they do not appear to be eager to spend money on GSM or any other form of GSM related long term capital investments.
3) In reading these articles, there is a sense of real urgency to get a piece of the CDMA pie. All debates appear to be focus on whether to start straight with 3G or start with 2G. The question of CDMA in China starts with when, not if.
Any other Chinese reading posters please contribute.
Ramsey
ps: I will post each time as a reminder that this is the moderated thread and please keep every post on topic. Use PM for anything not intended for mass audience. |
