WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 163.00

-0.4%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: KevRupert who wrote (12423)	7/1/2000 3:58:19 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (2) of 60323

Advalorem, "...but in these fast-growing industries, the good times are not perpetual," notes Craven. "At some point, supply catches up with demand." Is oversupply coming??? That is hard to say. I reply as follows whether the argument is based on the past maladies of the DRAM market or the current dilemma of the computer hard drive market... Message 13972362 Here is the biggest problem with the oversupply argument. ********************************IMPRECISION************************************ There is a lot of imprecision in the way the flash memory market is perceived. If I were making a low density product with little barrier to entry I would worry about a larger competitor coming in and whittling down margins. I can't see how low density commodity flash can remain a high margin item forever. On the other hand, high density flash and, in particular, proprietary miniaturized flash cards sporting the latest flash technology and surrounded by a deep moat (the IP) would seem to be a harder market to crack and disrupt. I also believe the demand for flash cards (in multiple forms) will be difficult to flood in the near term because of the mass appeal, the rapid anticipated growth of the target markets, and the protracted state of undersupply we are battling. _______________________________________________________________________________ I think my opinion here is somewhat radical. I am willing to admit that I stand at the far end of the spectrum on this issue. Ausdauer

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