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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.580+1.8%10:27 AM EST

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To: Eric L who wrote (6016)7/1/2000 6:21:21 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (3) of 34857
 
<Dr. Jacobs also said CDMA would have about 13 times the capacity of its main digital rivals, TDMA and its variant known as GSM. >

Gus regurgitates this hoary old chestnut which derives from arithmetic Quentin must have done based on a theoretical discussion in 1989 about the possible capacity of a CDMA system which was still only in the 'on paper' stage. Field trials were only run in 1991.

Way back then, Dr Jacobs thought 40x analogue capacity might be possible. Which is NOT a promise. Promises are backed by performance guarantees and financial consequences. Motorola chickened out on giving performance guarantees a few years ago so lost some business. Hong Kong wasn't all that great as a system. But I'm not aware that there have ever been performance guarantee payouts. The Los Angeles 8kbps system didn't succeed but that wasn't a big deal.

For a few years, 10x analogue capacity has been claimed and achieved with the latest capacity targets being 20x analogue with more to come. So the original guesstimate of 40x on a theoretical basis wasn't too far wrong.

Which is pretty damn impressive!

What those capacity achievements mean is they are the only economic way to handle $35bn spectrum costs. Crusty, slow, late to market VW40 efforts just won't do it.

The present whining by Nokia and other GSM-based proponents is that spectrum should be given away rather than sold, or allocated to buddies, incumbent service providers or offered under some other mechanism to avoid facing the economic facts of technological development.

So Gus, how about forgetting about the Hagfish Slime Wars of last century and getting on with providing the best CDMA available and maximized phragmented photons so erlangs per bushell are cheap! Ericsson has signed up with Q! and moved on. Nokia will do so sooner rather than later. The spectrum costs are indicative of the value of Q! patents - Q! will be raising the royalty rates rapidly now that they know how the market is valuing spectrum, which is what Q! offers.

Maurice
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