To all: here is the text of another post on stockhouse.ca bullboards about a Nesbitt StressGen report,
stockhouse.ca
Phase III plans The first Phase III trial will begin at the latest in Q4/00. Although trial design details are still being hammered out, the trial is likely to involve about 100 patients, who will be treated with either HspE7 or placebo. Given the small number of patients, we assume the drug was highly effective in the Phase II trials. The dose of HspE7 will be 500ug, which leads us to believe this was a more effective dose. Given the fast enrollment pace seen in the Phase II trial, the trial should be completed within one year at the outside. The company will also start a second Phase III trial in Q1/01 and will likely compare HspE7 to an active control such as 5-FU (a chemotherapeutic drug applied topically). Provided all goes well, the product could be on the market as early as late 2002/early 2003.
Genital warts
Genital warts are also caused by HPV and are often present in patients with AIN. Since the company has decided to start a clinical program with HspE7 for this indication, we surmise that HspE7 led to the disappearance of the warts. With an estimated 24 million existing cases and over 1 million new cases per year in the U.S., this market is large, although the pricing flexibility is less than for the AIN market.
VALUATION: StressGen continues to trade at a substantial discount to its U.S. peers. Unpartnered U.S. Phase II companies have a market cap that is equivalent to about $10.50 per StressGen share. Whereas unpartnered US Phase II Cancer companies have a market cap equivalent to about $16.00 per StressGen share. Its closest competitor, Antigenics has a market cap that is twice as high as StressGen’s.
ASSESSMENT: Based on management's decision, it appears that HspE7 shows effectiveness. This is the first indication that HspE7 has met its “poof of concept” and has a good chance of becoming a drug. The decision to proceed directly to Phase III was not one we expected from this interim analysis and comes as a positive surprise. Furthermore, the addition of genital warts as a possible indication substantially expands the potential market size for HspE7.
RECOMMENDATION: We continue to rate StressGen Top Pick (speculative). The data presentation from the AIN companion trial in either July or October should provide further momentum to the stock.
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