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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (3552)7/3/2000 12:00:20 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (2) of 19219
 
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Update: Bearishness Increases

Positions as of 6/27/2000:

Large Commercial Traders (banks, brokers, institutions) continue to build massive short positions to an all time high RECORD SHORT POSITION 41,758 net short S&P 500 contracts.

The commercials are in the know and had built a record net long 100,000 + contracts in late 1994 before the great Bull market took off in 1995'like a rocket. During this same time in late 94' the large speculators built up a record net short position of 80,000 + contracts and did not go net long until 1998 (and only for a brief 2 weeks) - three years into the orbit launch.

Why do I bring this history up - especially with the large speculators? Simply this:

The Large Speculators are the trend followers and usually late to the party. More importantly, these large speculators have now remained net long for the 7th consecutive week - the longest stretch since the year of the crash - 1987. Large speculators have a history of being wrong at the worst possible times

Caveat Emptor.

And with this potential counter-trend bounce, the game of russian roulette continues. How far into July is a roll of the dice. Snake eyes anyone?

Best Regards, J.T.
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