Jack,
I've followed Oracle for a long time as well. Never shorted it before, but I believe now is the right time. Let me counter you points:
Revs 1,984.5M to 2,321.9M to 2,449.4M to 3,374.3 May00 Per Hoovers
The previous 12 months revenues were:
Revs 1,749M to 2,060M to 2,080M to 2,940 May99.
Year-over-Year revenue gains were:
13% , 13%, 18% and 16%. Overall, for the fiscal year that ended May 00, revenues were 10.1B. May99 revenues were 8.83B. Revenue growth for the year was 14.4%.
EPS numbers are off in Yahoo and some other place for some reason. If you look at Oracle's own press announcements, or the quarterly reports, you'll see that May00 EPS was 0.69. At $80, the trailing PE ratio is over 115.
Net income totaled $6.30 billion, up from $1.29 billion per Yahoo.
This is incorrect. Net income was $2.1B, up from $1.29B.
The margin expansion in Oracle is coming to a close. Over the next two quarters, Oracle's margins will stabilize near their May00 number. Then earnings will grow with revenues (15% or so). Nobody will pay a PE of 100+ for that.
Regarding the target of $60 - Oracle had a low of 60 1/8 in April. Oracle had a lower low of 58 1/8 in the third week of May. The 200 MA is at 58. We shall see how low it goes.
- Marq. |
