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Technology Stocks : INSS - International Network Services

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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (103)5/13/1997 11:17:00 PM
From: joemjo   of 446
 
Glenn,
I agree completely. Post #87 (approxiametely) I put forth some rationale. 98 earnings of $.50, which is $.03 higher than the highest estimate on First Call, and I asked the question about 99 earnings. Which is exactly the problem with my analysis which you point out. How long do I think INSS will grow at 100%. I think their major source of income is from engineers/consultants under contract at various locations implementing, maintaining, and servicing companies networks. What are their engineers average training or experience? 1 month, 1 year, or 5 years? Is the demand for their services going to grow at 100% per year? If demand does can the company grow its work force at that rate? IF those happen will INSS make $1 in 99? $2 in 2000? This seems too optimistic.
So, let's tone it down a little. How about a 60% growth rate for 99 vs. 98 and 50% after that?
99 = $ .80
00 = $1.20
The market reflects this at half way through the fiscal year giving a PE of 50 for fiscal 99 at the end of the second quarter (12-31-98) price target for New Years $40.
Is this a plausible scenario or still too optimistic?

I know there are more questions on this post than helpful information but a stock which trades between 16 and 50 in 6 months must have alot of people scratching their heads. If you can't tell I'm trying to convince myself to buy some shares and still be able to justify the purchase when it trades under 100PE on trailing earnings.

Sorry for the ramblings
Todd
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