Hi Dan, agreed 100% that this is a long term hold to realize full value, but I didn't see anything in Rob's message predicting a move to $10 p/share. Rather, in an attempt to make an evaluation of the company's holdings in Elastic whether they liquidate or not, he's deducing a potential ITE valuation of $1.80 - $3.70 p/share given all of the underlying assumptions we've made about Elastic's share price ($15-$30), based upon a multiple of projected earnings. To me, this seems like a very reasonable model for making a projection.
If I'm interpreting what you are saying correctly, ITE may end up trading at a 25% discount of whatever it's total portfolio holding may be evaluated at, which no one really knows. If this is so, the market is saying that ITE's value must be a little over $1.00, or roughly $28,000,000. If all of ITE's investments are counted equally, then the market has priced in about $1M profit on each investment. If we use the same assumption that Elastic will be valued at $15-$30 a share during ITE's holding period (whatever that ends up being), then I calculate that if you factor in an already existing valuation of $1M and a 25% discount on top of that, then ITE's valuation will increase $4.5M - $9.1M over the level prior to Elastic's IPO announcement. That would equate to roughly a $.16 - $.32 p/share increase, given current market conditions.
Apologies if I've read too much into what you were saying, but I'm just trying to come up with some way to evaluate this company's future performance. I naturally tend towards some multiple of expected EPS, but who knows. As Rob pointed out, once we get through a full liquidity cycle, this IPO will finally give us some real numbers to work with.
Thanks. |
