Thread: anyone see the recent prognostications of the Elliott Wave Theorist? They look for gold to reach $300-$301, then $307-$308 in what they describe as a bear market rally. It's all technical, no fundamentals, so they have no particular axe to grind IMO. I've seen many interpretations of Elliott waves; my own, FWIW, says the rally last year was cycle wave I (CW I) in an impulse sequence. It appears we fell back from that in an a-b-c correction for CW II. EWT shows five-wave counts on the pullback, but I don't see it. If last year's advance was the beginning of a bull market, Fibonnaci ratio's suggest that CW III should be a minimum of 1.618 times the previous advance. From the recent low of $268.40, we should see something around $410 - $415 [($339-251.80)x 1.618 + $268.40]. This is also an area where one would expect some major resistance.
Among wavers, the difference between being super bullish and long-term bearish comes from an interpretation of the decline since 1980. The former group would say we bottomed last year. The latter group claim we're in for several more declines, bottoming below $200. We certainly need to break above $339 to bring the $410 area in site as a higher probability case. If we fold around $310-$315, I might be inclined to agree with the bears, reluctantly.
Dale |
