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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (140)7/5/2000 6:47:45 AM
From: tyc:>  Read Replies (1) of 2131
 
>>I don't expect inventories to fall to the critical levels of the mid 1990 years. There is just too much capacity to allow for it.

Your remarks comparing today's situation with the mid nineties were interesting and valuable. I would appreciate a little more of your insights.

LME warehouse stocks have now fallen 300,000 tonnes in four months.

IF total world demand for copper is 15,000,000 tonnes per annum, the current level of LME warehouse stocks would represents less than 2 weeks' consumption, (according to my arithmetic!).

..To what extent can LME warehouse stocks be used as a gauge of the world's supply/ demand situation ?

..To what level must LME warehouse stocks fall before "critical levels" are reached, bearing in mind that consumption is expected to grow at the rate of 3% per annum ?

Perhaps perception is more important than reality. Is it possible that there is considerable disparity between perception and reality ?

signed: "A copper Bull"
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