Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 260.77

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Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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From: tom	7/5/2000 4:09:56 PM
	Read Replies (7) of 70976

SSB's Joseph is not crazy....He's not even wrong.. Fact 1. IT spending in the US is at a record high. Spending on IT must be paid for. As the dot com bubble has burst and no one will lend to shite companies anymore. IT spending (ie semiconductors) must be paid for by profits. Only problem is....there aren't any. Fact 2. Taiwan, Korea and UK have seen massive disappointment in cell phone sales. Korea saw a 770,000 REDUCTION in subscribers in June. Forget growth. BT Cellnet in the UK got 125,000 WAP subs in 2Q00 but it was forecasting 500,000. Fact 3. Volume growth in semiconductors HAS PEAKED!! Anyone investing on the assumption that volume growth will go higher than 30-35% is dreaming. It has never beaten that figure before. The only way semi revenues are going higher is by price inflation. Fact 4. Everyone is bullish. Just like they were at the peak of the last cycle. Utilisation is high, everyone is adding capacity. Anyone see the problem? Why does everyone get so pissed off about Joseph's comments. The only way to find truth is to try and destroy your own argument. Joseph's piece was well argued and factually accurate. If you find the piece difficult reading then you should get out of semis. They are not a place for the intellectually weak...... REMEMBER. IT ALWAYS FEELS WRONG SELLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARKET!!!

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