Re: "I hope this SSB guy is shredded by Q2 semi sector earnings and guidance"
Klauer has predicted exactly that scenario:
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"Most of the companies Klauer tracks indicated that their inventories were low and their lead times were long, signaling strong business conditions for the second half of the year, she said.
"We expect this strong outlook to be reiterated during second-quarter conference calls. We expect companies to discuss a very strong outlook for second-half of 2000 and 2001," Klauer said.
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The article also explains Joseph's methodology for his dire predictions:
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In determining trends in the semiconductor industry, Joseph said he examines "top-down" indicators such as shipment growth rates and capital spending, as well as "bottoms-up" indicators such as lead times, prices and inventory levels.
"For most of this year, we have become increasingly concerned about the top-down picture, but have been reassured the upcycle was intact as lead times continued to extend, prices firmed and inventories remained low," Joseph said in a note to clients.
"The bottoms-up picture, however, went cautionary recently, apparently brought on by a slight slowing in cellular phone growth expectations and the rapid increase in capacity," Joseph added.
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cnnfn.com |
