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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 151.59

-0.4%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (265)	7/5/2000 6:23:58 PM
From: quartersawyer	Read Replies (1) of 197444

<By leaving it up to businesses to decide on technology standards, the ministry said it hoped to encourage cooperation between operators and equipment makers> It's not too difficult to find other words for "cooperation" in Korea. There are a number of bargaining areas. Q royalties are probably not even in play; if they were, the effect of a reduction in the immediate context of a system buildout would not be very large. Months ago the tremendous cost of 3G systems became apparent in conjunction with publication of articles outlining equipment provider financing, as high as 100%. Qualcomm is disadvantaged in this action by lack of control over terms for providing a system (as anticipated particularly strongly by J. Goren here in March of '99). If Ericsson has moved CDMA infrastructure at all it's been with reluctance and foot shuffling. If Qualcomm could, maybe they'd subsidize the cost of 2G CDMA systems looking to market share and eventual upgrade, but they can't. That business of Brazil Opens Doors to GSM Operators is clearly opens palms, or opens Swiss accounts, or at least as a response to multi-billion-dollar outlays by Nokia, which has pledged not only new plants but as I recall is constructing a vast industrial city for fun and profit and to push GSM where it makes no sense except for the Brazilian bureaucrats' and government's share of the loot. Without infra- and handset divisions, Q is not in a position to give away a communications system. What Qualcomm does have are the assets and inclination to teach a man to fish-- in these technological waters, at least. With vast market share, competitive global position and royalties at stake, that seems to be happening in China. Korean operators will gracelessly do what they can to pay less . The end result-- Q does great, as seems obvious, barring "catatastrophe" (Jimmy Durante? ). Maybe it won't even get to court since intense pressure from 1X/HDR will be early and powerful, and since-- although the fate of our country is not dependent upon Q's success-- it may just be that Nokia is dependent on Q's ability and willingness to help complete and then under good terms without fanfare sign off on a face-saving "European" version of CDMA.)

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