From Mr. CHGOPizza on Yahoo, and my response.
Rory, are you still around? Thoughts?
$9,947,000 2Q '99 Revenues
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+1,400,000 Valencia 4/1/00-6/30/00
+ 270,000 Wood Hills 4/1/00-4/20/00
+ 660,000 La Mesa 4/1/00-6/30/00
+ 395,940 BJ Same Store Sales 6.0%
- 50,000 Pietro S-Stor Decline 5.0%
- 180,000 BJ Closed on 6/30/99
- 120,000 Pietro Closed on 5/30/99
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$12,322,940 My Estimate for 2Q 2000
Net Income
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$344,000 2Q 1999 .04 EPS
+127,000 Preopening Exp 2Q 1999
+162,000 Close Charge 1BJ+1Pietro'99
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$633,000 99Margin
.063[633000/9947000]
+229,605 00Margin My Estimate
.070[862605/12322940]
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$862,605 .107 My Estimate 2Q '00 EPS
-200,000 2Q '00 Preopening Exp
[Valencia&Burbank]
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$662,605 .08 My Estimate Net EPS
2Q '00
If these numbers are in the ballpark .08 EPS would represent a 100% increase over the '99 results on a 20% increase in revenues. I write these for fun and because I remain very optimistic about CHGO. Since the stock has no coverage or estimates to look at that I know of hopefully this will lead to some more discussion of CHGO's future.
MrCHGOPizza
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Thank you so much for the ambitious undertaking of deriving estimates. Your Valencia numbers would be incredible, and I am not sure how you would figure out the pre-opening expenses. Is it generally 100k per location? Did you add in anything for increased G and A required to run/open/search out more and more locations? Personally, I would not think to generate the kind of model you have, so don't object, but I think you are taking everything as a best case scenario. However, even numbers vaguely resembling yours would be excellent and would bode extremely well for the company in my opinion. |
