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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 237.94-0.2%Nov 7 3:59 PM EST
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To: Don Pauley who wrote (51567)7/6/2000 8:08:34 AM
From: Chas  Read Replies (1) of 53903
 
7-6
Semiconductor Capital Equipment
* In our opinion, the majority of new fab spending currently underway will not result in meaningful output growth before the second half of 2001. Thus, as seasonal demand picks up for the semiconductor industry in the second half of 2000 it is highly likely to cause further tightening in the supply chain. Thus, pricing is likely to firm broadly for semiconductors later this year. This could provide the impetus for a
significant rally in semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks as estimates are revised upward.
* Semiconductor capital spending is just beginning to accelerate in Japan and Europe as these companies must upgrade technology or be left behind. At the same time, tight supply in PC related devices have spurred PC chip-makers, including Intel, to accelerate capacity plans. This represents the majority of upside in equipment orders in the coming few quarters, not a major change communications related spending - which remains robust.
* We maintain our 52% and 35% semiconductor capital spending growth projections for 2000 and 2001, respectively. We believe these levels are
required to meet the 32% and 26% semiconductor growth projections for the same years. In our view, the industry must add capacity while upgrading the installed base to the leading technology to meet semiconductor demand.
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