Some (hopefully intelligent) thoughts on ramp up. The table
below matches the known data on GW rollout and MoU in Q1,
assuming 150 MoU per sub average.
The ramp up, while aggressive and much higher than
WS consensus, seems plausible enough to me, considering
the populations served by the GWs coming on line. IMO, It's also
reasonable to believe each GW/marketing territory will
increase net adds per month over time as prices come down,
services are added, distribution channels become larger and
better trained, etc.
Month Net KSubs KSubs MMoU MmoU GWs Cntries Net
Adds (EoM) (ave) mnthly Qrtly (EoM) (EoM) Adds/GW GW ID
Dec-99 0
Jan 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.04 3 7 Italy, Brazil-1, Mexico
Feb 1 1.5 1 0.15 7 17 0.33 France, US, Canada-1,2
Mar 2.5 4 2.75 0.41 0.6 10 25 0.36 S. Korea, Nicaragua, Australia-1
Apr 5 9 6.5 1.0 15 33 0.50 Australia-2,3, Finland, Venezuela, Argentina
May 10 19 14 2.1 16 35 0.67 China-1
Jun 20 39 29 4.4 7.425 17 40 1.25 Peru
Jul 30 69 54 8.1 20 1.76 Russia-1,2, Brazil-2
Aug 40 109 89 13.4 21 2.00 Saudi Arabia
Sep 50 159 134 20.1 41.55 23 2.38 Russia-3, Puerto Rico
Oct 60 219 189 28.4 26 2.61 Brazil-3,Turkey, S. Africa
Nov 70 289 254 38.1 27 2.69 China-2
Dec-00 80 369 329 49.4 115.8 28 2.96 China-3
Annual MoU=165M
If this ramp up comes to pass, we'll end the year with about
70M$ in service revenue of which nearly 50M$ would be in Q4. |
