heinz:On Bubbles and Baloons
Let's look at " The Bubble " when you say :
" it will either proceed to inflate again, or it will
implode. bubbles don't stand still...".
The issue here perhaps is in first determining if what we have
is a Bubble or a floating Air Baloon
zyworld.com
I think this is important because theoretically at least you can
land an Air Baloon
( We are not talking about The Hindenburgh here of course vbg ).
So, is it a bubble or baloon?
I find interesting the analysis of the world's greatest broker Merrill.
Their take is that the Fed is done with rates.
It has been hard for me to fight my bullish broker because
MER has usually been on the conservative side in the past.
I fought him successfully for the summer correction but what now?
Up, down, middlin'?
Perhaps the answer lies on the Web.
What I mean is that to let air off an air baloon you have to
have very fine controls. Does the web provide that?
Perhaps yes:
We have daily bear markets here in individual stocks
from 20% plus to 98% for the dot.coms.
Look at CA.
Stocks correct instantly.
And since the Naz is now the market, maybe air is
being let off gradually.
This was not the case 50 years ago.
Then, by the time bad news went around, got rehashed, re-reported,
changed, you had waves of poor/misinformation colliding and causing panic sells down.
Today things seem much more controlled.
We have second to second contact with the market through
the Web, MAria/CNBC, CNN Fin, etc.
So may be we need to look at the issue of bubbles, baloons,
pops in mid air v. soft landings again,
VBG
TA
Message #56130 from heinz blasnik at Jul 6, 2000 12:21 PM
David, it's an experiment...they're trying to deflate the bubble they have created slowly...there is no such thing however. it will either proceed to inflate again, or it will implode. bubbles don't stand still...
regards,
hb
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