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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mrjns who wrote (27338)7/6/2000 5:28:23 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
rnathan,

the mention of lawsuits & blackmail irked me

I don't understand. Would you please take the time to clarify that?

As far as I understand the Gorilla status is based on the CDMA IP & not the chip sales

Not for me. Qualcomm's chip sales are part of the gorillaness. It doesn't matter to me insofar as the criteria for Gorillahood is concerned whether customers buy chip sets made by one of Qualcomm's fabs or whether customers manufacture the chipsets after having become a licensee using Qualcomm's IP. The reason it doesn't matter is because both speak to the issue of product adoption, which is the essence of gorillahood.

and the whole issue may boil down to whether QCOM will receive significant royalties in WCDMA,

Again, not for me. To the extent that CDMA is a gorilla game, Qualcomm is the undisputed gorilla if you use the definitions in the book. If you believe WCDMA will become a royalty game because you don't believe Qualcomm owns the IP or because you believe the courts will rule that Qualcomm doesn't own the IP, it's logical to assume two things -- that Qualcomm's proprietary market is smaller than it otherwise would be and that you might want to question if Qualcomm's gorillaness applies to a large enough market to whet your appetite for investment. Based on management's track record, until a court rules against Qualcomm about that I continue to put my money where Dr J's mouth is.

>if & when it becomes the de facto 3G standard.

If I understand your comment correctly, I gather that you think WCDMA has to become the defacto standard in order for Qualcomm to be a gorilla. For a bit of fantasy, there is the extremely remote possibility that CDMA2000 could become the defactor standard without an interim WCDMA standard.

--Mike Buckley
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