Having been gone almost the entire month of June, I guess I was fortunate enough to miss the June FUD. Unfortunately, I am now in the middle of the July FUD.
So here is my 2 cents post.
FUD is here to stay.
1) First and foremost, no analysts or experts seem to bring up the biggest obstacle for wireless going forward - TAXATION. The outrageous cost for these spectrum is a pure form of taxation. In order to recover this tax, our wireless phone bill is probably higher taxed than what we would pay for gasoline or even sin tax such as cigarettes. This tax puts so much pressure on the carriers that one wrong move could mean do or die.
2) Telecom, especially wireless, is going to be THE business of the decade. Formidable competitors are already lined up in practically every aspect of the business.
3) Adding up one and two, wireless telecom is going to be the mother of cut-throat. Every FRACTION of a penny is going to be squeezed from every link in the chain.
Now if we repeat the above themes, it is not difficult to draw the following conclusions:
THERE WILL BE NO GLOBAL 3G STANDARD.
3G = WW3. All gloves are off and each participant is going to do whatever it takes. There will be lawsuits, broken promises, political threats, WTO complaints, M&As .........
Every piece of news out of China, Korea, Japan, EU have hidden agendas, some less obvious than others.
For those of us who remember Frezza, his stuff is going to look tame in comparison to what we will see in the public forums going forward. Regardless of what Maurice thinks, with his upside downsouth theories, licensees don't care what is the fair value of QC's IPRs. QC is a major cost factor for 3G. The are going to use whatever means possible to cut QC to pieces.
I guess my point is if you are going to stay invested in QC, or any of the other telecoms, accept FUD as the fact of life. |
