SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 330.09+0.2%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (94)7/7/2000 1:06:54 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
MGJ: Re: "Without core inflation plus a slowing in the unemployment rate and with a slowdown in the economy the Federal Reserve has a history of letting the markets go where they may."

(1) As to inflation, it is a lagging indicator and I am not convinced it is benign even in the core. I see inflation creep. I see the potential for inflation spikes too.

(2) As to the unemployment rate, I am not sure I understand your point. The unemployment rate can't go down much further. Pool of available workers is near an all time low. Companies plan on hiring and not firing.

3) To the extent that a rising stock market is viewed or actually does increase aggregate demand, the Fed. will in this environment be more inclined to raise rates yet again. I have not forgotten Greenie's point about the market growth should be as a function of personal income or 6% as measured by the Wilshire 5000. Evidently, the pundits ignore this with their pie in the sky forecasts of Dow 14,000 or Nasdaq 6,000.

However, if the market rolls over as Brinker projects this may become a moot point.

Where would the S & P 500 be without the Naz in this rally? Nowhere. The Naz is leading this rally. If the Naz rally fails due to earnings concerns (note you say we have a good number of rate hikes to work themselves through the economy), it will be a difficult market.

Re: "Put me in the slowdown with no recession camp."

That is one scenario but a soft landing and tough comparables will at least cause earnings problems with these high multiples. The last few weeks have taught us all that earnings matter. You miss the numbers or the expected guidance and you are toast to the tune of a 40% - 60% haircut.

Re: "Looks to me like the Fed will be on a hold for awhile."

Only the shadow knows for sure.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News