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Jack Robertson's latest work of suspense and intrigue after the market close.
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ebns.com
Analysis: The Intel-Rambus mystery deepens
By Jack Robertson
Electronic Buyers' News
(07/07/00, 04:37:37 PM EST)
Intel Corp. these days may be watching the price of Rambus Inc. stock closer than any investor. The Big I could be closing in on the right to buy 4 million Rambus shares at a ridiculously low $2.50 each. At last week's Rambus stock price, which hovered around $100 a share, that's a cool $390 million windfall.
Intel's possible stock bonanza came to light in a revised Rambus Inc. filing last week with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Turns out the original 1996 deal between the two companies was revised 10 months after it had been signed, but was only reported to the SEC last week.
The biggest change is the benchmark criterion Intel must meet to exercise its warrant to buy the 4 million Rambus shares. The MPU maker needs only to ship 20% of its total chipsets in any two quarters with either a Rambus-1 or Direct Rambus-2 interface. The original agreement set the 20% mandate for two consecutive quarters.
That's a big difference. Intel might actually have qualified in Q1 of this year with its big push on 820 and 840 Rambus-enabled chipsets, combined with losing non-Rambus chipset sales to Via Technologies Inc. and other rivals. Another big Intel spike in Rambus chipset shipments in Q3 with the Tehama for the Willamette processor could meet the Rambus stock benchmark.
The ringer in this scenario is the new 815 chipset unveiled in late June that supports only SDRAM. Any big run-up in 815 sales without a comparable jump in Rambus chipset shipments could foil Intel's hopes to get its hands on the Rambus stock.
Many observers question whether Intel would go to all this trouble for a quick stock gain. But as the MPU titan's latest financials reveal, stock investments can be an awesome contributor to its income.
Some still think another, apparently unmodified, part of the 1996 agreement may be of more concern to Intel. As disclosed in Rambus' original SEC stock registration filing, the Intel license and contract from Rambus “can be terminated by Rambus upon certain breaches, defaults, or failures by Intel to achieve certain milestones or provide certain support for Rambus technology.” Nothing is spelled out on Intel's precise obligations, but they could be a factor in Intel's inordinate support of Rambus.
Also apparently unchanged is a vague provision in the 1996 pact that gives Intel unspecified royalty-free rights to Rambus technology for meeting certain benchmarks that also are not spelled out.
Far from clarifying matters, last week's belated Rambus disclosure to the SEC only deepens some mysteries. |
