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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (27483)7/8/2000 12:05:11 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Cha2,

Re: QCOM - Korea - Asia - IMT2000 MC v. IMT2000 DS (WCDMA UMTS/UTRA)

<< But the Koreans are very clearly talking about a very different "WCDMA". It seems to be CDMA2000 with a thin veneer. Its roots are CDMAOne >>

I infer differently. No reason why good minds can not draw different conclusions from available data. The roots I see (for the "WCDMA" side are the evolved GSM core network and the asynchronous mode of operation which is called Direct Spread and operates in 5 MHz bandwidth rather than 1.25).

<< My question to you is, can you penetrate this and tell us what kind "WCDMA" the Korean brand it, and its relationship (if any) to UMTS? >>

So far as I can tell SK Telecom plans to continue on the path they embarked on last year, to implement UMTS UTRA Direct Spread (asynchronous mode WCDMA in 5 MHz bandwidth) in the spectrum that Korea set aside or IMT-2000. While there might be some slight regional differences from the way UMTS UTRA DS is implemented in Asia as opposed to Europe, the implementation will probably be essentially the same.

Nokia of course is contracted for SK Telecom IMT2000 Network Planning and Implementation.

One confusing point about the implementation of DS in Asia, is of course that NTT DoCoMo is going to launch with WCDMA before the standardized version of UMTS UTRA DS is available (phase 1 NTT). They will then backhaul the network and implement UMTS UTRA DS (phase 2 NTT). They announced this over a year ago. I have no reason to doubt it. WCDMA may not work well out of the chute but DoCoMo is the early adopter of asynchronous CDMA and eventually it will work, and work as anticipated.

I anticipate that (unless Korea mandates cdma2000 for 3G in IMT-2000 spectrum) that SK Telecom will implement UMTS UTRA DS in a fashion that is virtually identical to the way NTT DoCoMo will implement it in phase 2 (not phase 1.

I am hopeful that at least one Korean carrier will opt for an implementation of cdma2000 3xMC with HDR. This would set up Korea similar to Japan and hopefully China. CDMA subscriber growth would continue apace (regardless of generation of technology).

It will, however, take awhile for all the implications of what is happening Korea to sort itself out.

<< And Samsung speeds use CDMA2000 >>

Positive news to be sure. Samsung seems to be attempting to line up with the big hitters of cdma2000 (LU, NT, ERICY).

I close by referencing again, the important presentation called "Evolution to 3G: Financial and Technical Perspectives" by Myungsoon Park, of SK Telecom that was made available on March 29 by CDG, foretelling SK Telecoms planned migration to IMT-DS that should come as no surprise to any of us (certainly not Qualcomm who is wired to Korea).

The early slides describe Korea, the cellular & PCS scene there, the carriers, infa suppliers and the handset suppliers.

Look at the right hand side (developmental) of slide 5 (GSM World - IS-41 World - International Roaming).

Check out slide 12 for "2G Internetworking" (IS-95A, IS-95B, 1x).

Move on to slide 14 on "Evolution Scenario to 3G" (phase 1, phase 2) then slide 15 "Rollout Plans".

Now slide 16 "3G System Technology" gets into the good stuff. It shows the DS-41 system (with the Hooks and Extensions that will need to be developed) bridging the IMT-MC and IMT-DS networks.

Now look at slide 17 that shows the completely deployed IMT-MC and IMT-DS networks with the statement "minimize IMT-2000 investment cost by deploying IS-2000 network capable of supporting IMT-MC/DS". Pretty Cool, IMO!

Remember that China today is all GSM. Remember that Korea & China are working closely. Picture this network concept deployed in China when China starts to implement cdma2000 in existing spectrum.

Now, for those that are really interested in 3G, and have 1.5 hours to spare (actually more if you want to playback some sections) I suggest listening to Dr. William Lee's (Chief Scientist at Vodafone AirTouch) excellent CDG Digivent presentation (3G Technical Discussion):

digevent.com

This is the best "laymens level" discussion I have seen/heard about the history of 3G evolution, The differences between synchronous MC and asynchronous DS, and most importantly it introduces the NNI, the DS-41 bridge, and, Hooks and Extensions.

Note 1: Before viewing the CDG Digevent presentations your system must be prepped (instructions at the site) and you may have to register (no charge).

Note 2: The presentation(s) best viewed with hard copy of the slides beside you (good for notetaking). The slides are not available individually but I have a copy in Word format (2 slides per 8½" x 11" page. I would be glad to e-mail it to anyone that PM's me a request with their e-mail address. The file (attachment) is 1.5MB.

This short post turned out longer than anticipated. Sorry about that. I am now rushing for the golf course. Enjoy your weekend.

As you say, time will tell. For me, it is too early to line up a 3G multimedia basket. I do have 2 components of the basket covered (Cisco & QCOM) and I watch ERICY & NOK closely, as you know. At the moment I see no gorilla in 3G.

Regards,

- Eric -
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