Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 217.59

+1.1%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Mani1 who wrote (1)	7/8/2000 2:14:30 PM
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Does anyone share my viewpoint? Intel has stated that they're going to preannounce the P4 on July 31st. I think they'll say that it'll be available to select vendors (prolly Dell, IBM and maybe Compaq)in September, which will turn out to be September 31st. If you call those companies on October 1st they'll tell you you can order systems, but delivery will be one month. That means no meaningfull P4 shipments until November 1. HP will stealth launch a couple of weeks later and volume shipments of the P4 will not occur until the last days of December or January '01. In the meantime AMD will increase to 1.1 GHz in early August (prolly announce it on the 19th), and 1.2 and 1.3 MHZ in Q4. I don't think 1.4 GHz will arrive until Q1. Intel will release it's 1.13 GHz in August also but supplies will remain very tight (Dell, IBM Compaq and HP only until well into Q1 '01) and that will be the last PIII released (excluding Xeons). Intel's Celeron II doesn't hold a candle to the Duron and will lose amazing amounts of market share to it in Q3 and Q4. This means that AMD will have much greater market share in the retail sector which booms in Q3 (back to school)when price is important and Q4 (Christmas buying) when price is less of an issue and performance is more important. I think buisness sku's will not follow for a while but the ball is beginning to roll in that direction... and as Tad LaFountain said.. it's all about momentum anyway. This gives AMD blowout Q2, Q3 and Q4 earnings due to their greatly increased market share due to excellent execution and Intel's major stumbling in the retail space. Their stock price on the other hand should rise through September at which point I think it will tank due to the P4 release, but will rebound straight through January earnings when the street realizes that Intel has been holding a weak hand (8xx fiasco/RDRAM roadmap) and bluffing since October 99. Thus my voluntary position disclosure: long July, August, (but not September) and January 01 calls. Plus some shares for further out 'cause the premiums are too high on 02 leaps. IMO 'zyme

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