The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

VTI 330.09

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: TREND1 who wrote (130)	7/8/2000 2:51:25 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (4) of 10065

Larry, Part II I think Bob has been right on the mark ! He said range of +5% to -20% (or more) Larry Dudash The range Bob has given is wide. Taken within the aforementioned context one can say his call has been correct. No argument here. Let me for the moment take the opposing view. The January call had some sense of urgency at the time it was issued. My reading of it was that Bob saw significant downside... which may still come about. (For the record I am sitting at 40:60.) The numbers to date are as follows: As of today the S and P is up .7% and the Dow is down 7.5%. These levels are flat to down but neither really approach correction territory. (The Nasdaq which I omit from this discussion is down 1.1%. It is omitted because Bob's call specifically did not reference the Nasdaq in the letter or on the show.) So far the urgency of the call is not justified by the indexes at least not yet. I also had the sense that Bob felt the Federal Reserve would raise rates more often than it looks like they will have to this year. The employment reports for the past couple of months look tamer than most here suspected. In July and August 428,000 census workers will be taken off the rolls decreasing employment in the public sector taking some pressure off the tight labor market. Looks to me like the Federal Reserve will not raise rates in August or at least not until year end read that as being November or December. Wage inflation seems to overplayed. Average hourly wages have risen 3.6 percent and when productivity is corrected for the corrected average hourly wage increases net out to about 1% a year. Hardly a cause for concern. CPI inflation seems to be overanalyzed as well. Take out energy costs and the inflation data seems rather mild. Further, quarter 2 2000 profits are projected to come around 20% over quarter 2 1999 profits. With oil prices coming down, assuming the Saudis keep their promise, with the Federal Reserve on hold for a few months, with good profit reports in front of us...this market may see more upside than many on this board believe. Hold on MrGreenJeans what about rising interest rates effecting / decreasing corporate profits going forward how does this fit into your rising market scenario? I am venturing a guess that profits in high technology stocks will be effected a lot less than most think. What I have not seen anyone project on this board are their decreased profit estimates for either later this year or 2001 translating into lower equity prices...Tell me your profit estimates and... Fire away...

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