Posted: 07/2000
Chaos Vs. 3G
The New Fast Track to Web Mobility
By Ken Branson and Fred Dawson
It took awhile, but the providers of cellular and
PCS services have gotten the message that they,
like everyone else in the carrier space, are fated
to live in an IP-centric world.
The moment that realization seemed to crystallize
into an industry-wide agenda occurred in early
March when a parade of executives from the data
world, led by Microsoft Corp.
(www.microsoft.com) chairman Bill Gates, showed
up at the mobile industry's annual convention in New
Orleans to make clear the central role they saw for
wireless in their efforts to make Internet
communications a ubiquitous reality. "Individuals
should be able to receive the information they want,
when they want it and where they want it, without
the sender having to be concerned about the
communication devices involved," Gates says.
Since then, cautious uncertainty among mobile
network operators about the value of offering
wireless data services has given way to a scramble
for ways to get to higher speed access rates faster
than previously envisioned, even if that means adding
new bumps in the road on the way to interoperable
third-generation systems. Jeff Bezos, CEO of
Amazon.com Inc. (www.amazon.com) speaks not
only for his sector, but for carriers as well when he
dismisses the old idea that carriers must test the data
waters with low-speed services until consumers learn
to appreciate the advantages of higher speed access.
Such thinking fails to appreciate the mindset of the
early adopters who are driving e-commerce, Bezos
says. "If you can provide a fatter pipe and a better
display and all those things sooner rather than later,
you're going to get more customers, not fewer," he
asserts. "It would be a mistake to artificially slow
things down assuming there's some sort of learning
curve that can't handle a faster progression."
Bezos predicts that within the next decade or so his
industry might be doing "everything wirelessly." He
adds, "That's how big things can be and why we and
so many others are investing so much in this wireless
future."
Amazon's latest moves in this direction include
launch of a wireless website that will deliver content
to client devices designed to interact with the
wireless access protocol (WAP) and to wireless
devices that work with other access protocols as
well, ensuring the widest possible distribution of its
services to handhelds worldwide. In fact, Amazon
president Joe Galli says the firm has devoted a team
of engineers and developers to preparations for the
transition to broadband-enhanced content on the
assumption that "broadband will change many
aspects of what we do."
One of the early ploys on the part of big online
players in wireless has been to ally with specific
carriers to create branded portals as points of entry
for e-mail, instant messaging and all types of
wireless-ready data content, which generally has to
be stripped of graphics and other nonessentials to
work with slow-speed links and small-screen
devices.
For example, Amazon and Bell Atlantic Mobile
(www.bam.com) reached an agreement where Bell
Atlantic's Wireless Access customers, who pay
$9.95 per month for the data component on top of
their monthly cellular voice service charge, will
receive a $15 electronic coupon from Amazon
toward future e-commerce purchases made through
the online retailer's website. "This alliance completely
redefines the meaning of point-of-sale for our
customers and will be the first in a series of wireless
e-commerce initiatives by Bell Atlantic Mobile," says
Debra Carroll, vice president of marketing at the
wireless carrier.
Amazon also is putting its Amazon.com Anywhere
strategy to work in Europe, starting with the United
Kingdom where its site has become the first fully
functional Internet shopping site that can be accessed
from WAP-enabled phones in Europe. The service
is available on Nokia Mobile Phones Inc.'s
(www.nokia.com) Nokia 7110 and Motorola Inc.'s
(www.motorola.com) Timeport WAP handsets,
which are among the first to be WAP enabled in
Europe.
Sprint PCS (www.sprintpcs.com), which launched
its Wireless Web service in September with a
starting price of $9.99 per month for 50 minutes of
data use on top of any PCS voice plan, is taking
impulse shopping to the next level in a pact with
startup E-Compare Corp.(www.ecompare.com).
E-Compare's WAP-based Mobile Services
software extends the firm's support for Internet
comparison shopping to points of sale in myriad
product categories, notes Charles Levine, chief sales
and marketing officer for Sprint PCS.
"With this service Sprint PCS customers nationwide
are able to make clear comparisons virtually
anywhere, anytime to find the best value and
selection of products directly from their
Internet-ready phones," Levine says. "For example,
if a Sprint PCS customer is at an electronics store,
they can find out if they have the best price in the
country right on their PCS phone."
For its part, Microsoft has introduced a new version
of its MSN Mobile service in conjunction with new
distribution deals involving Nextel Communications
Inc. (www.nextel.com) and AirTouch
Communications Inc.'s (www.airtouch.com)
AirTouch Cellular. It will allow those carriers'
wireless customers to interact with MSN's Hotmail
e-mail service in real time as well as gain access to
many other wireless-configured components of the
MSN online service. Microsoft also plans to
configure forthcoming versions of Windows 2000
with software supporting point-and-click
connectivity to the web via wireless phones and
other devices.
Not to be outdone, America Online Inc.
(www.aol.com) has struck deals with Sprint PCS
and various paging interests that will afford AOL
subscribers access to AOL e-mail, instant messaging
and wireless-adapted content.
The biggest force behind the sudden surge of web
presence in wireless is the de facto adoption of
WAP as a standard means of configuring web
content to the thin-client parameters required for
delivery to handsets, no matter what types of air
interface protocols are used by customers' wireless
service providers. The technology uses wireless
markup language (WML) to provide users a
text-based approximation of a web page that can be
read on tiny cell phone screens.
If, as Bezos insists, the wireless industry doesn't have
to worry whether demand will justify investment in
network support for access speeds beyond today's
commonly used 14.4kbps rate, the challenge
becomes how to quickly meet market demand for
higher speeds. To John Zeglis, chairman and CEO of
AT&T Wireless Services Inc. (www.attws.com),
this means nothing less than figuring out how to
"unleash the power of the fusion of voice and data."
How fast the wireless industry in general will move to
higher speed data platforms remains to be seen, but
there is clearly new pressure from carriers on
vendors to come up with high-speed solutions
sooner rather than later. For example, Lucent
Technologies Inc. (www.lucent.com) and
QUALCOMM Communications Inc.
(www.qualcomm.com) have partnered to
commercialize and promote as a standard
QUALCOMM's proprietary high-speed data
solution for CDMA (code division multiple access)
that will deliver a much faster data rate over the new
generation of CDMA base stations--1X
CDMA2000--than the current 1X standard
supports.
Until now, QUALCOMM had reported little
success in promoting its High Data Rate (HDR)
technology, which will support access over existing
carrier channels at speeds ranging from a few
hundred kbps to in excess of 2mbps vs. the
64-144kbps offered over 1X-equipped base
stations. The fact that Lucent is making HDR line
cards available this year as part of its line of 1X
upgrade products reflects that carriers now see HDR
as a viable fast-track option if it has sufficient
manufacturing support, says Bill Wiberg, president of
Lucent's cellular and PCS wireless networking
group.
"The technology has interested just about everybody,
but there hasn't been a broad enough commitment to
commercialize it," Wiberg says. "We believe in it
because it gives our customers a time to market
advantage in moving to the next step beyond 1X."
Similarly, Motorola is raising the bar on 1X data
rates with the introduction of what it calls "1X Plus,"
which delivers up to 1.38mbps per 1.25 MHz radio
frequency carrier channels and will support up to
5mbps when carriers go to full third-generation (3X)
CDMA2000 capability using 5 MHz carriers.
Motorola hopes to persuade the International
Telecommunications Union (www.itu.int) to embrace
1X Plus as a last-minute addition to the IMT-2000
series of third-generation air interface standards that
are to be finalized this spring.
Sprint PCS is now testing the QUALCOMM HDR
system, though there are some bugs still to be
worked out, says Sprint PCS spokesman Tom
Murphy. "We like what we see, but we think there
will be some improvements in the spec," he says.
Sprint will be able to double the speed of access
over its switched-circuit data system to 28kbps by
year's end by implementing new compression
technology, Murphy says. The company has now
tested the next level, namely 1X, which is
packet-switched rather than circuit-switched, with
most of its vendors and expects to move to that
platform quickly next year, he says, noting that "1X
is just a software upgrade for us."
If all goes well with HDR, the carrier could then
move to that platform using existing base stations
with the addition of new line cards well in advance of
full 3G implementation, Murphy says.
Such moves point to more of the chaos that has
characterized mobile phone technology to date. In
Europe, the dominant technology for wireless
communications is global system for wireless
communication (GSM). It isn't global, of course, but
it is widely used in the Asia-Pacific region.
In the United States, no one technology dominates in
wireless communications. Carriers use time-division
multiple access (TDMA), CDMA, GSM (which is a
variation on TDMA), and, of course, many still use
the legacy analog system. All of these air interfaces
can be used in conjunction with circuit-based data
signals, just as data can be delivered over
circuit-switched wireline networks. This cellular
digital packet data (CDPD) technology has been the
linchpin to the launches of 14.4kbps WAP-based
services by major U.S. mobile carriers.
Industry leaders cite last year's landmark agreement
on the licensing of CDMA code to permit a uniform
air interface approach to 3G as proof that, as
carriers move to the next generation of digital
wireless communications, these incompatibilities will
go away. "We use CDMA," says Sprint's Levine.
"That's different from GSM. AT&T Wireless uses
TDMA. The three are not compatible. However, the
problem will get solved because in the agreements
made about 3G, everyone has agreed to use CDMA
going forward."
But immediate exploitation of the fastest migration
path to higher speed web services seems to be a
higher priority than getting to 3G, as Sprint's efforts
with HDR and other carriers' strategies attest. Nextel
is especially aggressive in this arena as it breaks out
of the circuit-based mode to create a more purely IP
transport environment.
"We've created Nextel Online ... comprised of a set
of capabilities, built on a packet data network--true
packet data capability," says Greg Santoro, Nextel's
vice president of web-based services. And he says
the company will use a dual-mode web phone to
bridge different technologies.
"It allows customers to access the Internet over the
phone," Santoro says. "We've taken Microsoft
mobile--Microsoft spent a lot of time mobilizing
Microsoft network [MSN]--and we've brought that
capability to our customers via our services. In
addition, you can shop Amazon.com. We also have
some productivity solutions that allow you to
synchronize your phone numbers with your handset
over the air. So, [we have] content, shopping [and]
productivity applications. We've also started to
launch some messaging and vertical applications."
WAP is being pushed by most of the leading
vendors, including Ericsson Inc. (www.ericsson.se),
Nokia, and Motorola under the umbrella of the
WAP Forum Ltd. (www.wapforum.org). But not
everyone is convinced this is the way to go.
"WAP set out to do content adaptation for small
screens, and ... to introduce some network
performance improvements for data traffic," says Iain
Stevenson, who is a principal consultant with Ovum
Ltd. (www.ovum.com), and co-author of Ovum's
report, "Mobile IP." "The original idea behind WAP
was that you could reformat web content on the fly,
but that didn't work. At the moment, if you want to
offer content to cellular phones, you have to do
another version of that content in the WML. The
second issue comes down to the efficiency of
transmission of data. If you look at the actual specs,
it's quite a complex stack of protocols. ... It's like the
seven-layer model all over again."
For Levine and Santoro, WAP does get the job
done. It just depends on how you define the job.
"The services we've developed have been optimized
for a small screen," Santoro says. "Some
applications work well for such a screen and some
don't. Business applications that require forms or lots
of graphics obviously wouldn't work very well."
"As we're talking right now, I'm looking up my
watchlist for stocks," Levine says. "Without changing
screens I can tell you that [Sprint] PCS is up today."
Sprint offers 15 different phones to its customers;
Nextel offers six. They are not laptops, both men
concede, but they don't think there is anything wrong
with that. Levine says Sprint PCS does offer PDQ, a
product that combines a Palm Pilot with Sprint PCS.
Finally, Levine suggests there is more to online life
than screen size and graphics. Sprint PCS' wireless
web service is always there when you turn your
phone on, he says. "You don't have to worry about
the Bill Gates memorial process of logging on," he
says.
Stevenson thinks complex technical problems stand
in the way of getting to higher speed web access
over mobile networks. He points out that
compression, past a certain point, can degrade
service. He adds that the interfaces between fixed
and mobile IP networks and the PSTN will take time
to develop around the world. In the meantime, he
suggests, carriers should be a bit more circumspect
in setting the expectations of their customers.
"The thing about cell phones is that people would
really like to use them anywhere on the planet,"
Stevenson says. "Every government in the world
wants to reserve a certain amount of spectrum for its
own use, and it isn't the same spectrum from place to
place. There is a small amount of agreed spectrum
available, and you'd use it up quickly [in 3G]."
Levine concedes Stevenson's point. "It's not just that
[governments] want to reserve spectrum for
themselves," he says. "It's that different countries
don't use the same spectrum for the same things. If
you've already assigned all your television stations to,
say, 1,900 MHz, or all your medical
[communications] equipment, how do you then
reassign it to wireless?"
Sprint PCS and other carriers get by as best they
can. Sprint PCS customers can roam in Canada and
Mexico because those countries' spectrum
allocations are close to that of the United States. For
everyplace else, they may, like Sprint PCS, offer
customers a "simulation card."
"You get a card, rent a phone in France, put the card
in the phone and receive calls from anywhere in the
world using the same number you would normally
use," Levine says. "It's not necessarily the most
elegant solution in the world."
To Stevenson, this lack of spectrum agreement
poses more than just a technical problem. He's
concerned that scarce spectrum will make services
more expensive, which will lead cell phone
companies to fill the available spectrum with more
voice calls, thus cutting off development of other,
higher end promises of 3G.
Roberta Wiggins, director of wireless/mobile
communications at the Yankee Group
(www.yankeegroup.com), doesn't think it's as bad
as all that. "The wireless people are basically voice,
but they believe there is a huge opportunity there [for
broadband services], so there is going to be more
partnering with vendors and portals," she says.
"What's really powerful, what's really going on here,
is that you'll see a whole new class of pure play
applications, just as you saw on the web," says
Omar Javaid, CEO of Mobilocity Inc.
(www.mobilocity.net), a New York communications
consulting firm. "The paradigm that we find powerful
is to draw you to a Star Trek analogy, where you're
talking to something, you're walking around in New
York and asking what are the Mexican restaurants
within a mile radius."
Javaid thinks Sprint PCS has a crucial lead in the
United States over AT&T Wireless, Verizon
Wireless (www.verizonwireless.com), and the
as-yet-unnamed wireless amalgam between
BellSouth Mobile and SBC Communications
Inc.(www.sbc.com). He believes AT&T will offer a
WAP-based product this summer, and that Verizon
will follow suit. "Vodafone has been very aggressive
in Europe, and that will spill into the States very
quickly," he says.
The skeptics have had their day, Santoro says. "We
spent the last couple of years building a packet
network capability, and we wouldn't have done that
if we didn't think our customers wouldn't ask for
more than just to be able to communicate with the
traditional means," he says.
This sense of opportunity rather than any
commitment to ultimate multistandard harmony
seems to be the trend that will rule the migration to
higher speed web access and, with it, the delivery of
IP-voice embedded applications in that data stream.
It will be chaotic, but at least the market will have an
opportunity to vote on the merits of an IP-based
mobile environment vs. a circuit-switched one much
sooner than seemed likely a few months ago. |
