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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Craig Bartels who wrote (10897)7/9/2000 4:47:29 PM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (1) of 78467
 
I am a polite guy, so I won't comment on your statement about investment experience, except to say that I believe that you do not have enough experience unless you have lost virtually all your money at some point. However, it sure sounds like you are playing with fire on shorts. As I have posted before, you short bad companies in bad industries with bad charts. THAT is how you control your risk. Shorting overpriced stocks is a fool's game as I think some of our posters could tell you with respect to AMZN. Who is to say that a ridiculously overpriced stock won't get twice as overpriced?

There is another better reason for not shorting. The very most you can make is 100% if you hold for a long time and the company goes broke. Conceptually it takes just as much homework to understand that a company is a good short as it does that it is a good long. With the long you can make 100's of percent for the same amount of effort. For example, I recommended SEMI on this thread more than once in 1999 as a traditional value play at $3. It is now $22. Why should I bother to try to find some company that may go from $22 to 3.

As far as anthony@pacific goes one of the reasons I did not buy NTOP at $20 or so was that he was trashing it so hard that he evidently got thrown off SI. It subsequently went to $90, before settling back to a price well above $20.
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