Jay, right now QCOM is in a definite downtrend, this downtrend is not related to the market "malaise" we had since early March. As you remember from the CYMI episode, I am not very good at guessing the future bottom (CYMI went to half "my bottom" which was ridiculed by the thread two years back). Right now, however, if I was a betting man, I would say that it will go to the 20' next year, that will be a 15 PE on next year expected $1.5 earnings. My reasoning is very simple, next year I expect a bear market, since QCOM is laready in a bear market of its own, when the rest are going to join, it will be further decimated. Of course, if it holds the $50 area for few weeks and no longer make new lower lows, on market retrenchments (as it did last week) I may change my mind. I would not hold it as a long term hold until it fullt deflated. I trade it within its declining channel because it is very liquid and when it moves up it can go a good $5 to $10 in two three days. The best we can expect in the "coming monster rally" is a trial run to $80, and that will not turn the downtrend, mind you, unless on reetrenchments it holds above $70 or so.
Zeev |
