Hmmm ... the world certainly has speeded up in many respects, hasn't it. Well ok, if we postulate that this spring was this fall, then we should be going into Spring '00 any day now -g-
Some of the seasonal factors may be somewhat fixed - things like rrsp/ira tax shelter season, tax-related sales of dogs or postponement of profit-taking of winners going into the end of the fiscal year, stuff like that ...
And the weather, along with the length of days - this certainly affects me ... when the days are short and it's wet and cold out even in the limited daylight, i'm online a lot more ... from March to October it's nice out and the outdoor work/play is endless, even most of the social life is outdoors ... couple of weeks ago i went two full trading days without checking in during market hours, now that would never happen in the winter.
Come September, the days get a little shorter, the kids have to go back to school so less people are on holidays, thoughts of preparation for winter come to mind .... i don't think modern communications is going to affect this much ... except that by them we come into contact with people Downunder and in Argentina, Chile, RSA, etc, where the seasons are switched round -g-
US election coming up, this is another sort of seasonal thing.
Also - at some point the interest rate trend turns, and people start to suspect that next change the Fed may start dropping ... too early to call on that one, but it will come sooner or later ... last time there was a downward trend, banks were a sure thing, don't know about this time around ... well this is getting away from seasons, the Fed's a little planetary system of its own.
Over the years i've done well by leaving in ridiculously low stink bids during the summer, then taking profit into the September rallies ... for whatever reason a few people in July-Aug are often dumping without notice into a relative lack of bids, they must just decide they need the money today or something ... or could be the sun rots their brains ... or the buyers are all off at the beach ... it's seasonal, though. |
