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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 342.05+0.3%Jan 15 4:00 PM EST
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (151)7/9/2000 8:28:59 PM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Richard

"The January call had some sense of urgency at the time it was issued. "

I'm still having trouble seeing this. Is there anything objective you can point to to establish this purported urgency?

I reread the January newsletter and I agree with you. The poorly worded point I was trying to stress was that he stated, "the changes are effected immediately." After rereading the letter I sensed no general urgency except to execute the sell now.

Bob has indicated in the past that a special issue could be sent out if needed.

I have been a subscriber for well over a decade and Bob has never issued a "special" letter. This period covered both bull and less bullish markets.

Some of it also came from his critics, who couldn't be bothered to wait to see how a forecast with a six-month to two-year time frame would work out.

Do you have this point right? Or are you confusing it with how long a bear market would last six months two years?

"I also had the sense that Bob felt..."

This kind of talk really makes me nervous. It's all so squishy

Makes me squishy as well but Bob often hedges when he talks about the markets on the show. Obviously, this comes with the territory and is understandable. About a year ago a possible and legitimate call for a bear was weakness in the dollar which never came about. The weakness never appeared because of higher rates and the point was never raised again. However, had it appeared and caused a bear he would have claimed to had made the correct call as he should have.
Forecasting is focused on possibilities both realized and unrealized.

...with good profit reports in front of us..."

An assumption.

Yes. From Chuck Hill at First Call: 3rd quarter profits up 18.5%, 4th quarter profits up 16.8%. He states they are probably conservative as analysts let companies they follow beat their calls by a few cents. Overall 2000 profits are projected to rise 18 to 20 percent.

It's nice to see that you agree with me, but I suspect you meant affected instead of effected. (grin)

I caught that myself in editing my piece but lazy me thought no one on the board would notice. Richard: 1 MGJ: 0. Can't put one past you.
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