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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (148)7/10/2000 1:16:46 PM
From: tyc:>  Read Replies (2) of 2131
 
I don't really disagree with your assessment. However allow me to express a more bullish view.

.<<There clearly is a lot of capacity out there and if a lot of it wasn't idled the last 2 years, we would be looking at mountainous inventories.

I am sure that is the consensus view and it is probably correct. However, I wonder how this "idled capacity" measures up against the 3.5% growth rate in demand that is commonly projected. This growth will add >450,000 tonnes to demand next year ..... is there really that much idled capacity ?

Projected growth of this magnitude puts current inventories in better perspective. We should look forward in assessing them, not backwards !
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