In what way could Dr J possibly be facing a "credibility deficit", what has he promised that he has not delivered?
Chaz, there were other possible outcomes, some better than what we appear to be witnessing. As you know I am not a proponent of the "it's all smoke and mirors" theme. WCDMA is clearly wiping the floor with CDMA2000. At this point it is reasonable to question whether there will ever be any CDMA2000 networks built in the new spectrum. Is this a circumstance IJ expected to be in? I doubt it very much. Of course he is putting the best face on things.
I have no proof that Korea will go completely WCDMA, but IF they do, expect DDI to reneg, and Unicom as well. Why stand alone?
I can't remember where i read the "bet the company on HDR" quote. Perhaps it's RCR which i recieve in print, I don't know, but I can assure you I read it and the source was reputable.
I DID NOT say that this bet was a failure, it's too early to know. I'm not even sure I understand the gambit, but my guess is that Q believes that the time to market/economic advantage of 1XHDR will be sufficient to win converts from WCDMA. After everything we've seen I see no reason to believe that'll happen, regardless of how early and how well it works. It just doesn't seem to be the way things are going. NTT/ETSI are steam rollering everything in their path.
IJ was quoted in the BbERG interview which has been posted numerous times over the past few days that we won't see WCDMA winning new subs in the new spectrum until 2003/4. My point was simply that the 1XHDR conversion we're talking about will not take place unless WCDMA is significantly delayed, and at this point I see no reason to bet on that happening, BWDIKnow?
Anyway, I'm not suggesting in any sense that IJ lacks integrity so no lynching please, just that I think he really has lost the standards game and one therefore has the right to question his judgement.
Yes any flavor of CDMA is good for Q but more CDMA2000 would be better. Q will have greatly expanded opportunity in a 3G CDMA world, but Q's advantage will be greatly diminished, which would have not been the case had CDMA taken the game.
As you all know Q has not participated in any of the WCDMA "tests". As Gus is suggesting, Q will have to trade royalties for the right to play the WCDMA chipset game, and perhaps have to trade royalties in exchange for a partnership. None of this would have been necessary had CDMA2000 won the day.
And please don't feed me any of this WCDMA is vaporware crap. You guys can't still really believe that can you? It may have started that way but things are different now. |
