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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

0.0%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Dave-in-MarinCa who wrote (56339)	7/10/2000 4:16:50 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) of 99985

If you refer to the stock market as related to FED Funds you are right. Stock market participants are in denial. FED FUNDS 4.85% in July 1999 6.85% in July 2000 gain 41% in 3 month paper NAZ in July 1999 2330 NAZ in July 2000 3850 gain 65% in NAZ stocks (last Friday) earnings growth 12% interest adjusted gain 142% above normal (65%/41%/1.12= 142%) Those calculation assumes an interest sensitive maket were the ratio of earnings to interest rates is stable. The NAZ is 142% overvalued at present FED FUNDS in relation to first week of July 1999 (same anticipated earnings growth and other BS). Fair value as related to real earnings should be below NAZ 2000 with today interest rates. What bubble were bubble BWDIK Haim

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