Joe:
Re: "A lot of people are excited about this line, but IMO, I think if there was any doubt about AMD producing this many chips, we would be in trouble. AMD produced 6.5 million processors in Q1 with only 1 fab, that was not 100% CPU oriented.
Since the production of K6 will be below 1 million in Q4 (my guess), it is not so hard to believe that AMD will produce 8.6 million processors in Q4, 2 million more than Q1 given now that we have additional fab producing CPUs."
Comment: I'm ecstatic about it as, by rough estimate, incremental earnings increase at about the rate of $0.10 per share per 100,000 incremental Athy's...By this benchmark, Q3 earnings should increase by $1.80 over Q2, and Q4 earnings should increase by $3.60 over Q3 assuming these incremental units are sold, which I accept as a given...Assuming Q2 earnings of $1.50 ($2.00 a distinct possibility), if the incremental Athy effect stands up, Q3 and Q4 earnings could be $3.30 and $6.90 before tax respectively...Hence a Y2000 eps of $7.00 is not unreasonable...In fact $10.00 might just be attainable! |
