BULL MARKET REPORT:Q to benefit from any-CDMA royalty,Buying Opp
THE BULL MARKET REPORT DAILY FOR THE WEEKEND, JULY 8-9, 2000
1. MORE BAD NEWS FOR QUALCOMM IN SOUTH KOREA
COMMENT: Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM, $57, down 5) seems to be losing the battle
of 3G lately. First China and now Korea. South Korea's two mobile
telecommunication leaders, SK Telecom (SKM) and Korea Telecom (KTC), said
they plan to use Qualcomm's competitor's W-CDMA (Wideband Code Division
Multiple Access) technology for their new cell phone networks.
We are going to be doing a special piece on Qualcomm in the near future
because we want to shed some light on the situation here. Qualcomm has
been a big winner for us, but lately it has given back a lot of those
gains, dropping from a high of $200 to its current price.
There are two technologies here: W-CMDA and CDMA 2000. Both technologies
are known as third generation wireless technologies, or "3G," and are
capable of delivering voice and Net access at high speeds. The company
refutes speculation that Korean carriers will embrace W-CDMA over CDMA
2000. Regardless, both technologies are based on CDMA patents, which will
net Qualcomm significant royalty fee income though the company's chip
sales business could be impacted if W-CDMA was selected over CDMA 2000.
Keep in mind that there is has been no definitive choice made in Korea
yet. It is just speculation and rumor. But if it is true, it will be a
short-term setback for Qualcomm. Here is what Lehman Brothers had to say:
"Both technologies are based on CDMA patents, which will net Qualcomm
significant royalty fee income, though the company's chip sales business
could be impacted if W-CDMA was selected over CDMA 2000."
PaineWebber had this to say : "We forecast Qualcomm will receive 4.5%
royalty for the deployment of 3Q technology products whether the
technology used is W-CDMA, CDMA 2000 or other forms of CDMA." Although,
they lowered their 12-month target from $250 to $200, they still have high
regards for the company.
This is a very scary time for Qualcomm because of the letdown in China and
now, potentially in Korea. However, we think they will prevail and will
become one of the most profitable companies on the Street. Yes. We think
this is an opportunity to buy the stock at a discount.
Some of you have written because your cost basis is much higher than ours.
Do what you think is best. If you can't stand the pain, sell and move on.
There are many other good investments out there. Don't fall in love with
a stock so that you are paralyzed into inaction. The news above is not
pretty and if Wall Street decides that the wait is too long and risk is
too high, they will take this stock down to $20 a share. Set your sell
stops in place NOW to be assured of not getting killed if this scenario
were to unfold. After all, if you had done this at $150, you'd be looking
at these levels to get back in, not to be getting out of a bad situation. |
