MarieS,
The lockup share thing is not that simple. For one thing, if you look at the tables posted on lockup.com, you'll see that there are times when large amounts of shares (relative to the float) come out of lockup, but the stock price nevertheless went up as the lockup date came and went. In fact, this is a frequent occurrence.
A recent trade of mine encountered just this situation: AVNX. Despite doomsday predictions as the lockup date approached, the lockup date came and went, but the stock price seemed unaffected in any significant way.
To say that most of the lockup shares get sold on the release date is just not always true. That's just the first date when the law allows them to be sold. The most dramatic effect is usually when the principals just want to bail on a company they are reasonably confident can't last, and so they cash out en masse while the cashin' out is good. A simple stock manipulation/unadulterated greed play. This scenario, I submit, is not applicable to DVSA.
So, what about DVSA, and its lockup shares? While it may seem that the 25.3 million shares is a lot, that is not that unusual for an IPO at all. And consider this: one of the major insider shareholders in DVSA is none other than Dr. J. Craig Venter. Do you really think he's going to sell any of his shares? In a company that he founded in 1994 (originally called Industrial Genome Sciences)? Also consider that Venter's research arm predecessor to both HGSI, CRA, and Industrial Genome Sciences----TIGR [The Institute for Genomic Research]----is also a major backer of DVSA. I'd say, based on their actions over the last 6 years with these corporations, that Venter and company are into DVSA deeply, and for the long haul. In fact, I'd even suggest that DVSA will enjoy a sweetheart relationship with CRA which will put them at a decided advantage; why wouldn't Venter want to do so? It's a win-win situation for all concerned.
So I anticipate that the lockup date will come and go, and little change in daily volume will occur. I think it extremely unlikely that you will see any significant dilution of shareholder value because of rapid expansion of the float.
JMVHO............
[Disclosure: I am neither long nor short DVSA, but considering a long position]
Regards,
Walkingshadow |
