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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: niceguy767 who wrote (119966)	7/11/2000 1:36:02 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) of 1574854

niceguy, re:<by rough estimate, incremental earnings increase at about the rate of $0.10 per share per 100,000 incremental Athy's> Half of each 100K are replacing K6-2's at an ASP only $40 higher ($95 Duron vs $55 K6-2) If the other half (TBirds) have an ASP of $240, thats a total of $14M additional revenue. But there's $1M additional cost to make the new TBirds @$20 each, so the increased profit is only $13M per 100K incremental Athy's. Before taxes you are at about 7.5 cents per share, after taxes, 5 cents. So going from 1.8 to 3.6M spry athy's should add $1.35 pre-tax, 0.90 after tax. Going from 3.6 to 7.2 doubles these increments. If we assume Q2 is $1.15 (taxed), Q3 and Q4 would be $2.05 and $3.85, a total of $8.20 for the year. We have to subtract the increasing depreciation, slightly increasing R&D and two thirds of the increase in Q4 may be Durons rather than TBirds. But we haven't even counted increasing revenues from flash, so $8 per share (taxed) seems highly do-able. Petz

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