<< Do you think we are in a bear market?>>>
IMO: No, we are in a controlled flat or slightly uprising market. Mr Greenspan has established and demonstrated his ability to influence opinion and stop
excesses. Banks (Fed Reserve will want people to continue
taking loans to buy cars, credit homes).
The Nasdaq crash from 5000 to 3200 was far worse than it seemed on the surface, more than the measured 36%
because the composition of the average is overweighted by
big successful money earning companies like INTC, MSFT, Dell, Csco and Orcl.
Lesser known individual stocks were hit much harder, more like 60% perhaps, and approaching what happened in 1929
but it is a no-no to emphasize that because it would put
5000 mutual funds (and fund managers) out of business G.
and make things worse.
Americans today( I can't speak for others), count more and more on investments to provide an adequate retirement
income especially since now and then a politician says
Social Security is going (to go) broke and Medicare will run out of money and must be revised. Those who want to get re-elected have stopped talking about it.(hehe)
1. Its astounding to me the amount of money and liquidity
in the market. After WWII the entire US budget was $50 bil
(I believe), and yesterday JDSU planned to buy one small
tech co.-SDLI, for $40 bil.
2. Money that vanished in a down market is not lost,
it re-appears like magic if the market recovers.
Someone can buy 1mm shares of a company, causing a $10
rise in the price that will add $1 bil to the market cap.
Summary:
Paul Van Wijk was right to warn us last year about YR2000, we had a major crash (but for other reasons than expected) and he was also right to say buy ORCL or DELL(G). Recovery will continue. |
