SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: StockHawk who wrote (27664)7/11/2000 11:42:55 AM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Well this really sucks. I just did a post and it disappeared. I shall try one more time.

Uncle Frank, Stockhawk good call on Buffett and Q.

If you just take the handsets alone - NOTHING ELSE. Here is how a chicken scratch Buffett calculation might go.

2004 - 1 billion cell phones sold. 35% are CDMA. 60% have Q chips in them (being very conservative).

Qs chip prices fall to $15, royalty rate to $4.50

350 million CDMA phones x 60% = 210 million phones x $15 x.35 margin = $1.1025 billion chip profits.

140 million non-Q chip phones at $4.50 per in royalty = $630 million in profits.

total very conservative handset only profits in 2004 = $1.7325 billion/741 million shares=$2.34 eps x 65 multiple =$151.97 stock price in 2004. Discounted at 15% you get a fair value today of (again for the handsets alone very conservatively valued) of $87 {152/1.15^4).

Or 58% appreciation from here just for about the most conservative handsets alone estimate of Qs value.

Tinker
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News