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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 31.99-1.5%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST
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To: Cacaito who wrote (14096)7/12/2000 10:04:26 AM
From: StockDoc  Read Replies (2) of 17367
 
Thanks to you and Blue for the thoughtful analyses. Just a few more notes and I'm out of here.

First: reality. Cost of treatment does matter even if it is about life and death. If you knew anyhting about medical practice you would agree. People die because they don't get the best and most expensive treatments available.

Lilly might have said 500,000 for septic shock but that's marketing BS. No decent (and independent) MD would ever say such a thing. Septic shock (the end-stage of but not equivalent to sepsis) carries a high (>50%) mortality rate. Where are those >250,000 dead people? Marching among us?

Again, Lilly clearly indicated that there are easy lab tests that can select for the patients who are very likely to benefit from APC. E.g., those with acquired antithrombin or PC deficiency. Thus hospitals don't have to treat every septic patient with a $10k infusion. On the other hand, those already in septic shock might not respond to treatment and they might need some other new modality. 50 thousand septic patients at risk of septic shock and treated with APC could still provide a neat revenue of 500MM. That's very good for a single indication. Total market potential for all indications is probably over several billion dollars.

We agree on the Baxter business. They're silly. Others might jump in though.

Keep up the good work here and enjoy the ride.
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