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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 230.34+9.3%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: cfoe who wrote (9328)7/12/2000 11:55:45 AM
From: jghutchison  Read Replies (2) of 12623
 
Pure Speculation

Alcatel has a major share of the global submarine optical networking market, and a minor share of the terrestrial DWDM market, and a minor presence in North America which it would like to enhance.

Ala has a market cap of $77 BB which is about half that of lu and one third of nt.

Ala is no heavyweight in DWDM, but has a very big SONET/SDH technology base, which will erode over time as DWDM continues to take away market share.

If this company wants to continue to be a global player, they must either develop, or acquire DMDM and optical switching technology. Bear in mind, that ala is a large French company (I believe the government owns, and therefore controls, part of the company.), and as such it is severely handicapped when it comes to fast, decisive business action. It is highly unlikely that you will find a situation where the CEO of ala cuts a deal over the phone with an old friend like jdsu-sdli.

Only the strong survive.

Jack Hutchison
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