Hi Ali, Nice analysis on sdli. Would you care to present a similar analysis on cien?
Thanks. It's kind of hard to fully analyze Ciena from a valuation standpoint because of the range of valuations among its peers. Ciena should not be compared to Lucent, Nortel, Alcatel, Marconi, etc. because Ciena isn't weighed down by legacy gear (as you and others have pointed out again and again on this thread). The more reasonable comps would be Sycamore, ONI, Corvis, etc. However, those valuations are so high that Ciena looks like a bargain in comparison, as I'm sure everyone here knows.
Personally, I like Nortel for its expertise in fiber optics and wireless; I like Ciena for its focus on next gen optics and its leading marketshare in Europe (which is poised to grow faster than all markets except Asia); and I like Alcatel for its dominance of the undersea segment, its European presence, and its valuation.
Sorry I couldn't present a better analysis on Ciena. Perhaps over the next few quarters Ciena's (and its peers') true value will be known as more contracts are won and revenue begins to ramp.
Ali |
