I think some sort of Ciena-Alcatel hookup would create a formidable competitor to Nortel and Lucent. It would be a great move by Alcatel. However, Ciena shareholders may not be happy with it unless, of course, a big premium was received. The merged company's one weakness would be 3G wireless. Alcatel has some GPRS expertise but none in WCDMA or CDMA2000 as far as I know.
If this company wants to continue to be a global player, they must either develop, or acquire DMDM and optical switching technology.
I agree that Alcatel is no heavyweight in DWDM, but I think they are competent and gaining expertise. In optical switching, Alcatel is currently testing Agilent's optical switch. They may be the first vendor to sell the Agilent switch to carriers. They're taking the right approach and are integrating others technology into their own platform. By the beginning of 2001, I think Alcatel will have caught up to (and maybe surpassed) most vendors in optical switching (as far as technology is concerned, not sales) if Agilent's switch is as formidable as people claim it to be. Remember that Alcatel is a major vendor of cross-connects, so they surely know that they need to establish an optical cross-connect/switching competence within a reasonable timeframe, or they will lose business and marketshare.
Ali |
