(PM to clappy that i need to share on the porch.)
hey clappy-
how'm i doing? well... i'm growing a lot. :-)
i loved the jump in the market today. i took advantage of it and got completely into cash - even the IRA. there might be some more short term gain that i'll miss but i did not want to risk holding into the silly summer selloff.
remember the BISSI chart?
redbay.com
it is still DEAD SPOT ON! even after eleven months since i drew it. if i had heeded it i would be quite wealthy right now. i'm going to heed it this year! you will notice from the chart that this july rally is as good as it gets until the last week of october. don't get suckered into thinking august will be good.
i did well with it last year until it came time to sell - the first week of april. i had just discovered "voltaire's porch" and was taken in (overwhelmed, mesmerized) by the success stories and the wealth of the porchies. i doubted my own judgement and knowledge and followed the millionaires. i started to follow the beano plan i but got greedy and followed the casino players (no risk - no gain). i sold all my stock in my trading account and bought calls that were recommended risk plays (YIKES!) i watched and agonized as $188,000 went down to $450 at the close yesterday (i could not believe that qcom would drop that far before rebounding). i saw my account value triple today to $1500 so i took it dude - these are options - you can't hold them for years like you can shares of stock... by next month they'd have been worthless. worthless = $0.
i had borrowed $50,000 on credit cards and i had to borrow $25,000 more on the house to pay my capital gains taxes, so counting the $1500 i have left, i'm only in the red for <-$73,500.>
don't get me wrong. i'm not whining and i'm not giving up. i'm going to turn the $1500 into $75,001 by using leverage (either margin or options) in the winter and start over at +$1. (even if it takes 5 winters) and meanwhile, i'm going to grow my IRA from $24,000 to ????? (a retireable amount). if i do anything in the next 45 days it will be puts, shorts, or just sitting on powder waiting for the bottom of the silly summer selloff. if i had the IRA in a brokerage that would allow selling covered calls i might do that - but i don't. besides, it would probably be a wash for the next month or two as opposed to being in cash as the doldrums set in.
i'm going to post this PM on the porch because i think it's of value to everyone and i want them to see it. i've gotten lots of value from JW and tech and KG4's posts of their struggles and i appreciate their sharing. not all valuable stories are of financial success. i believe in giving and since i don't have material assets to give - this is my gift for today.
love,
-polvie
ps- yes. i heard from she. she bought a new house and is putting all her energy and time into her domestic and real estate affairs - she's a smart woman of good timing and good choices. (she's pretty cute too) :-) |
