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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 57.90+3.7%Dec 22 3:59 PM EST
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To: biowa who wrote (1329)7/13/2000 10:01:50 AM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Biowa - One of the problems in the sector is that countless knowledgeable folks will extend exuberant commendations towards the thrust of your post. These sentiments will, in the end, will be shallow lip service.

For example, we all should take to heart NEJM's statement about the current perception of the idiopathic nature of most common maladies. This is indeed a dirty little secret: there's very little money to be made - which is what all this boils down to in the end - when 80-90% of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's etc. cases are sporadic, not familial, and thus cannot be approached on a broad-brush basis.

I've no doubt the pace of biomedical research will advance faster in the next decade than in any other decade. But the argument that bioinformatics will provide the basis for distilling the myriad genetic and environmental factors responsible for some of the most intractable diseases leaves me highly skeptical.

The bioinformatics response may be instructive to those who respond 'Oh it's too hard' but the bioinformatics crowd is as inappropriately optimistic as are the bench workers pessimistic.

This entire subject reminds me of the frequently voiced claims in the AI community that they've developed this or that algorithm which is the best yet in approximating even minor aspects of brain function.

As one in the field I can tell you with confidence that we are a very long way from truly understanding 'even minor aspects' of brain function.

Perhaps the staid scientific community is slow to fully embrace the power of the genomic database. Perhaps relying on algorithms and IR departments places blinders on the biotech investing community as well.
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